Re: [MLUG] A Cost Analysis of Windows Vista Content Protection

["Jonathan King" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On 2/3/07, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> On Sat, 3 Feb 2007, Jonathan King wrote:
>
> > On 2/1/07, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> >
> >> I'm not optimistic either.  M$ is the 800-pound gorilla in computing
> >> and people are going to buy Vista.
> >
> > As a worker for the 800-TON gorilla, however, I can say that although
> > people may buy Vista, many really large government organizations are in
> > no hurry whatsoever. As it happens, the feds have not very much interest
> > in the alleged advantages of Vista (e.g., DirectX 10) and a huge
> > investment in the status quo. So huge, in fact, that it's not clear to
> > me that the NIH will be buying anything with Vista on it for quite some
> > time.
> >
> > So this is not to say that lots of people won't buy Vista or that the
> > feds will shun it forever, just that there is no big rush to Vista at
> > the moment for many very large IT outfits, and I don't see this changing
> > very quickly.
>
>
> Sure, but you know how this works.  Microsoft has contracts with
> manufacturers and they will be shipping new computers with Vista
> installed.  Many millions of these computers will be sold in the next few
> years.  Some commercial and government organizations will avoid Vista, but
> most people will want it on their new computer because it is the newest
> version of Windows.

No doubt. I am just telling you that government and commercial
organization really have no incentive to switch to Vista. I think this
is important because one of the things that drove large-scale XP
adoption was that the same organizations were relatively eager to
ditch the weird mix of NT, Win2K and other junk they had around for
XP. I don't doubt that every Dell sold to the consumer will have XP on
it. I do wonder how quickly that market is growing these days, and how
long it will take for Vista to command the lion's share of the Windows
OS market. Hey, maybe it will be much faster than I think...but I
wonder.

jking

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