Re: [UUG/MLUG] getting Linux to the "million idiots"

[Neil Bradshaw <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

The "million idiots" crowd will always be an obstacle for Linux, even if
the OS becomes 10x more easier to use than Windows. The problem with the
"million idiots" crowd is that many of them buy computers that come with
Microsoft Windows. All they want to do is get on the Internet, check
e-mail, write and print documents, and other basic things. Windows may
not be the greatest platform for doing these things, but it does them.
If people figure out how to use Windows first and it does what they
want, why would they switch OSs?

Most people have *no* clue how painstaking installing an OS is,
especially Windows because it comes on their new PC. Redhat has it's "8
click and it's done" thing (I think that's the right number...maybe it's
12?), and many other distributions have gone to a easy GUI interface for
installation. That helped get over the "Linux is a pain in the ass to
install" hump. Installation still needs a little work, though,
especially installation of individual software packages not bundled with
the OS. Sun, Applix and KDE are all developing office suites; Opera, KDE
and Netscape are making browsers for Linux; and there are a number of
easy to use applications that work better under a more stable Linux
environment. KDE and GNOME continue to close in on Windows' ease of use
factor. And most Linux software is free. It would seem from all this
that the average Joe should be able to replace Windows with Linux easily
in the next few years. For the "idiot" crowd, though, they aren't going
to want to have to learn a lot. It has to be a switch easy enough for
any idiot to do.

But the real problem that remains is that the average Joe does not get
Linux on his new PC. He doesn't even get a choice. And if he's working
9-5, has to pay bills and deal with things that people typically deal
with, he's probably not going to get too worried about Linux vs.
Windows. If it works he's happy. And as long as Windows crashes don't
happen too much, he's not going to change OSs on behalf of hype.

This might change when and if the DOJ destroys Microsoft's monopoly and
opens up the market for alternatives to Windows. There might come a day
when a new PC can come with Windows, Linux or another operating system
of the consumer's choice. But I don't forsee it happening anytime soon.
Especially if Microsoft keeps the courts tied up and continues to put
the choke hold on hardware manufacturers. 

I honestly don't believe that Linux nor any OS will ever dominate the
market. That is what I hope as well. I do, however, hope that all OSs in
the future will eventually turn Open Source. The software market needs a
healthy amount of competition. Linux does not need to dominate the
market like Windows does now.
-- 
Neil Bradshaw
Student/University of Missouri - Columbia
EMAIL:PROTECTED
"To err is human. Good thing I'm not human."
Mike Miller wrote:
> 
> On Fri, 10 Dec 1999, Jason McIntosh wrote:
> 
> [snip]
> > I'm not complaining that Linux is getting all this attention, but I
> > think that in reality, as of right now there is this huge focus on it,
> > but people need to realize that it is still early in the phase of
> > development for a general, million idiot user release, imho that is.
> [snip]
> 
> That's what everyone is saying, and there's plenty of truth to it.  It
> seems to me though that the million idiots don't really know how to use
> Win NT/95/98 OSs either.  One member of this list put Linux to the "mom
> test" (or something like that) -- a test to see if his computer-illiterate
> mom could run Linux instead of Win, and it turned out that she could, and
> it was easier for him because it didn't crash so often.  The so-called
> "million idiots" depend on other people (usually people like us) to tell
> them what to buy and to make things work for them.  This is very
> important.  If the more sophisticated users move to Linux, others will be
> forced to follow.  You can point and click just as well in Linux as in
> Win.
> 
> Another big plus:  Linux and related programs are usually free.  So users
> don't have to pay for the software and they can afford to pay someone to
> make it work.  Linux afficionados are often deeply committed to promoting
> Linux, so they will do what it takes to get their friends using it.
> 
> There are still many issues to deal with.  New software on CD will not
> always be available for Linux.  Users who want to use a lot of fancy
> devices with their computers might not be able to get those things working
> under Linux.  But many things are just as easy in Linux as in Win.
> 
> So I do think Linux or similar OS will eventually dominate.  Sure it's
> just starting, but the pace of acceleration is huge.  I'm very upbeat
> about Linux.  Remember the book "Internet Snakeoil" from about 1995?
> What a joke!  Why did the author believe the internet wasn't going
> anywhere?  Because he liked the feel of the wooden card catalogues in the
> local library.  This got him on NPR and in all the newspapers.  This
> proves that someone will always take the losing side in any debate!
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Mike
> 
> --
> Michael B. Miller
> University of Missouri--Columbia
> http://taxa.psyc.missouri.edu/~mbmiller/