[MLUG - DISCUSSION] [POLITICS] To McCain: "All your base are belong to us!"

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

One perspective:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-grahamesmith/all-mccains-base-are-belo_b_110341.html

Sounds good, but look at Gallup's numbers:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108643/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-43.aspx

Remember that news organizations are not interested in a landslide -- they 
make more money from a close election.  I was believing Zogby in 2004 and 
that didn't work out for me.

Gallup is providing numbers rounded to the nearest percent and with that I 
can't even tell you if Obama's lead is larger than the margin of error. 
(That is, if the difference is larger than 1/[2*sqrt(N)].)

I like to think that these polls are missing the young people -- those who 
haven't voted before or who use a cell phone and not a land line.  They 
must vote more for Obama than for McCain.


After telling that to one well-informed guy, and FDR expert, he wrote back 
to say this:

   FDR never trusted Gallup. They are Republicans. And rolling averages,
   well you know. I don't think it will be close...

Then there's the market-based perspective from both Iowa Markets...

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_quotes.html
Graph:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm

...and Intrade:

http://www.intrade.com/
Graphs:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/charts/

I like those resources.  So the markets have pegged the probability of an 
Obama win at about 65%.  Those who believe Obama will win can bet on it 
and make more than 50% on their investment if it pans out.

Someone else suggested this:

   True that McCain's situation is reminiscent of the Democrats' in the
   past ... a poorly managed campaign, a lackluster candidate with many
   issues against him. Like the Republicans in the past, Obama's campaign
   has been very competent and disciplined. Also, he is charismatic, beats
   McCain hands-down in his presentation and has the wind of major issues
   in his back.

   However, Charlie Cook says there are reasons to believe this may be a
   squeaker:

   http://www.cookpolitical.com/node/2680

   Cook is a shrewd handicapper, not a political bloviator, and he nailed
   the 2006 outcome when others were far more conservative in their
   predictions.

And back to the FDR expert and "well-informed guy" quoted first above:

   This is looking very much like the 1932 election (a topic that I have
   some knowledge about). It is more than a "change" election (2000
   could be seen as such), this will be a re-alignment election.

More on this later!

Mike

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