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On Fri, 9 May 2008, Mike Miller wrote:
Of course, I am data-mining here (as is everybody else, but I digress).
In any case, the last rule suggests there is a better than 80% chance
that the GOP will lose in November. But I don't believe it for a
second. There really just isn't enough data here to build any kind of
useful model.
OK but at least you can't say that you have no reason to think
otherwise.
More from Paul Krugman on the upcoming election:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09krugman.html
He thinks it will come down to how well Obama will attract the working
class white voter.
One thing not mentioned by Krugman that could be huge: Obama's choice of
running mate. I think Hillary is locking herself out of contention with
her recent weirdness. How about John Edwards? I would like that.
Edwards is very concerned about the problems of working-class Americans.
He's the right age for the job. He can help in the south.
Mike
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