Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] interesting Indiana Primary point

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Wed, 7 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:

> On Wed, May 7, 2008 at 9:29 AM, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
>
> > How about this one?:  Current US President, a Republican, has lowest 
> > approval in decades.
>
> That obviously doesn't help McCain. Lord knows, having an unpopular 
> incumbent in before you did not help Stevenson, Humphrey, or Ford 
> (technically Ford was the incumbent, but you know what I mean).
>
> But I think McCain enjoys a killer advantage over those other guys: he's 
> seen as a maverick and an independent voice in his party. (In 
> reality...not so much. Specter or Collins are much more so, but that's 
> another issue.)

You can bet that the reality is going to be brought home to the people 
again and again and again in a long series of advertisements -- McCain 
hugging Bush, etc.


> Whoever gets to be president next will find it very tough to get out of 
> Iraq because he will be called a "loser" who "didn't support the 
> troops". These are all powerful forces.

I think the people have been hearing that for years and they aren't buying 
it.  Last I heard, 68% of Americans want the troops home in 6 months.  We 
also remember Vietnam.  It's like that.  How does continued warfare 
"support the troops?"  Everyone knows they want to come home!


> The single best predictor of elections is the growth of personal income 
> in the year preceding the general election. That's probably McCain's 
> biggest problem. But he will have the luxury of running against an 
> opponent with very high negatives, no matter who it is, and being seen 
> as a fresh break from the present, whether he is or not.

He isn't and that is one of his weaknesses.  Most people are not doing all 
that well economically these days and McCain has no good answers for them.


> > > OK, I am basing this on the fact that about 45% of the electorate will 
> > > vote for any Republican under almost any circumstances.
> >
> > I would say "45% of the population will not vote for a Democrat under 
> > any circumstance" but people will stay home instead of voting if the 
> > only option is very unappealing to them.
>
> What you said is NOT what I said, Mike. I am talking about the people 
> who always vote. They will vote, and they will vote for the Republican.

My point was to not say what you said.  I was suggesting that you were 
mistaken and that some people who always vote Republican just won't vote 
for McCain this year, but they won't vote for anyone else either.


> > > Then the question is whether as many as 10% of the rest of the 
> > > electorate will find themselves unable to vote either for a woman or a 
> > > black guy. I am pretty sure the answer is "yes, definitely". Thus, I 
> > > can project that McCain will win the popular vote.
> >
> > But polls have been showing him losing to either Obama or Clinton.  Do 
> > you think people lie to pollsters to make themselves look less 
> > sexist/racist?
>
> They have in basically every primary so far. (To clarify: Obama 
> generally underperforms his last public polls; IN and NC are only 
> exceptions because pollsters mis-weighted the white/black vote.)

I'm not sure how you are getting those data.  If someone says he'll vote 
for Obama, but he votes for Clinton (or not at all), does that mean he was 
trying to conceal his racism but not trying to conceal his sexism?


> > The economy is bad though.  Many people will blame Republican policy, 
> > perhaps justifiably, for the economic troubles.
>
> But they see McCain as an independent! This really is an important 
> point!

What you are saying makes me think that the Rush Limbaugh types who were 
very negative on McCain were possibly trying to help him by making him 
seem like he wasn't one of them.

One thing I'm not hearing you respond to is that possibility that 
Clinton-Obama, or just Obama-whoever, can really bring people to the 
polls.  Vastly many more democrats than republicans were voting in the 
primary, and I'm talking about the early days before the contest was 
decided.  I don't see doddering old-man McCain generating a lot of 
excitement, ever.  The only surprises I've been seeing from him is that he 
is able to quickly transform himself into a Bush Republican without really 
admitting to it.  He's pretty much disavowed every previously-held idea 
that distinguished him from Bush.

Mike

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