Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] interesting Indiana Primary point

["Jonathan King" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Wed, May 7, 2008 at 9:29 AM, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> On Wed, 7 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:
>
> > On Wed, May 7, 2008 at 2:45 AM, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>
> wrote:
> >
> > > On Tue, 6 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:
> > >
> > > > Unless McCain does something insane, Clinton-Obama would be lucky to
> > > > win 17 states (CA, OR, WA, NY, IL, MA, CT, RI, VT, WI, MD, NJ, DE, MN, AR,
> > > > HI, and *maybe* MI or CO or NM).
> > >
> > >  Why not Ohio?
> >
> > Democrats have not won Ohio since 1996, and I don't see any compelling
> > reason why they should start doing so now.
>
>  How about this one?:  Current US President, a Republican, has lowest
> approval in decades.

That obviously doesn't help McCain. Lord knows, having an unpopular
incumbent in before you did not help Stevenson, Humphrey, or Ford
(technically Ford was the incumbent, but you know what I mean).

But I think McCain enjoys a killer advantage over those other guys:
he's seen as a maverick and an independent voice in his party. (In
reality...not so much. Specter or Collins are much more so, but that's
another issue.)

> > > > I'm seeing 2012 as a very tricky year for incumbents.
> > >
> > >  Why?
> >
> > The Iraq war will be nine years old by then and the war in Afghanistan
> > will be over ten, gas will be over $7 per gallon, the budget will really be
> > a mess. We are unlikely to have had real healthcare reform yet, and the
> > economy generally could be suprisingly weak. Running on that "record" (even
> > if it wasn't mostly your fault) will be very tough.
>
>  You are assuming that the status quo will be maintained.  McCain will
> maintain it, and maybe that is why he isn't planning to run in 2012.

Gas is a safe bet to much more expensive in 2012. The budget will be a
mess because neither side will have 60 votes in the Senate. Whoever
gets to be president next will find it very tough to get out of Iraq
because he will be called a "loser" who "didn't support the troops".
These are all powerful forces.

But also, McCain is going to win, and we know he doesn't want to pull
out of Iraq.

> > > > You could be right, but I doubt it. The way to bet would be McCain to
> > > > win in 2008 (again, barring something weird, but weird is definitely
> > > > possible) and any incumbent in 2012 to lose.
> > >
> > > I'm surprised that you think McCain has it all wrapped up.  That isn't
> > > what I'm hearing from most observers, but they're mostly a bunch of
> > > liberals.

The single best predictor of elections is the growth of personal
income in the year preceding the general election. That's probably
McCain's biggest problem. But he will have the luxury of running
against an opponent with very high negatives, no matter who it is, and
being seen as a fresh break from the present, whether he is or not.

> > OK, I am basing this on the fact that about 45% of the electorate will
> >  vote for any Republican under almost any circumstances.
>
> I would say "45% of the population will not vote for a Democrat under any
> circumstance" but people will stay home instead of voting if the only option
> is very unappealing to them.

What you said is NOT what I said, Mike. I am talking about the people
who always vote. They will vote, and they will vote for the
Republican.

> > Then the question is whether as many as 10% of the rest of the electorate
> > will find themselves unable to vote either for a woman or a black guy. I am
> > pretty sure the answer is "yes, definitely". Thus, I can project that McCain
> > will win the popular vote.
>
>  But polls have been showing him losing to either Obama or Clinton.  Do you
> think people lie to pollsters to make themselves look less sexist/racist?

They have in basically every primary so far. (To clarify: Obama
generally underperforms his last public polls; IN and NC are only
exceptions because pollsters mis-weighted the white/black vote.)

> > Bush was just able to win the electoral vote without winning the popular
> > vote, but he could only do that because he (and pretty much every other
> > Republican) can win more small states.
> >
> > There are scenarios where McCain can lose, but they all pretty much depend
> > on him looking very frail and/or the economy completely imploding by
> > November. I don't think that's the way to bet.
>
> The economy is bad though.  Many people will blame Republican policy,
> perhaps justifiably, for the economic troubles.

 But they see McCain as an independent! This really is an important point!

jking

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