Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] interesting Indiana Primary point

["Jim Locke" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Tue, May 6, 2008 at 9:51 PM, Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:

On Tue, May 6, 2008 at 10:21 PM, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
>
>  A few minutes ago they had her ahead by 35,000 votes with about 300,000
> left to count and about 1,000,000 already counted.  She might still lose
> Indiana.

It would be tough, I think. Right now, she's up by 42K, and I don't
know how many votes to count. Extrapolating from incomplete counties
that have reported anything, I get her margin to be 36,000 - (Obama's
margin of victory in Lake County). I don't think there's any doubt she
will lose Lake County, but there are only 450,000 people there. If
100,000 people voted in the primary (big if) and Obama took it by 2:1
(I don't think he'll manage that), he would come close. It is still
possible, however.

> > Clinton will win big in Kentucky and West Virginia, but will lose in
> > Oregon; there aren't enough polls out in Montana or South Dakota to say much
> > about those races. She is now pretty much guaranteed not to win a majority
> > of pledged delegates or a majority of the primary popular vote.
> >
>
>  By popular vote do you mean the portion shared by her and Obama, ignoring
> other candidates?  If not, will either of them have a majority?

I was talking about the two of them. I think Obama has an outside shot
at a majority including Edwards and the others, but I'm not sure.

>  For me the most important thing is which of the two can win in the general
> election.

Neither of them is going to win. If Obama is the nominee, he is going
to lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, and Missouri for sure,
and possibly other necessary swing states in addition. I think Obama
could win Colorado, and it would be amusing to see him win something
like Kansas, and he would have an outside shot to win Virginia, but
that only compensates for one of the other states he would lose. If
Clinton is the nominee despite losing the pledged delegates race, I
think she will be done in by low voter turn-out in some areas and
would lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and maybe Michigan. I am not
sure that she would any of the other border states she would then
need, with the possible exception of Arkansas.

> If Hillary is the Prez candidate, she will invite Obama to be VP
> and he will either say yes or he is out of his mind.

I am not so sure. I don't think she will necessarily invite him, and I
am not sure he would be wise to accept because the one thing I almost
know for certain is that a Clinton-Obama ticket would get smashed.

How do you come up with that belief?  (that a Clinton-Obama ticket would get smashed)
I tend to think the other way around.
The war is highly unpopular, and McCain was and is heavily "for" for the war.

And what about the MUCH heavier democratic turnout in the primaries and the republican?  (while the R nomination was still a contest, that is).
D turnout was frequently twice the R turnout.

> If Obama is the Prez
> candidate, I'm not sure who will be his running mate, but it is possible
> that it will be Clinton, though she is a bit old for the job.  I think a
> Clinton-Obama ticket is a sure winner.

Unless McCain does something insane, Clinton-Obama would be lucky to
win 17 states (CA, OR, WA, NY, IL, MA, CT, RI, VT, WI, MD, NJ, DE, MN,
AR, HI, and *maybe* MI or CO or NM).

> I also think that 8 years as VP will
> make Obama unstoppable in 2016, but they'd have to win re-election in 2012.

I'm seeing 2012 as a very tricky year for incumbents.

> If they lose in 2012, Obama is still a likely winner for the Dems.  So I'd
> like to see the superdelegates do the right thing and negotiate a
> Clinton-Obama ticket.  Obama has a reasonable shot at "best president ever"
> if he can spend 8 years as VP just getting ready for his big chance.  He'd
> only be 55 when he taking office in 2017, which is a very good age for
> starting the presidency if you ask me.  No one will say that he lacks
> experience!

You could be right, but I doubt it. The way to bet would be McCain to
win in 2008 (again, barring something weird, but weird is definitely
possible) and any incumbent in 2012 to lose.

jking

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-- 
- Jim Locke.
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