Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] interesting Indiana Primary point

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Wed, 7 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:

> On Wed, May 7, 2008 at 2:45 AM, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> > On Tue, 6 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:
> >
> > > Unless McCain does something insane, Clinton-Obama would be lucky to win
> > > 17 states (CA, OR, WA, NY, IL, MA, CT, RI, VT, WI, MD, NJ, DE, MN, AR, HI,
> > > and *maybe* MI or CO or NM).
> >
> >  Why not Ohio?
>
> Democrats have not won Ohio since 1996, and I don't see any compelling 
> reason why they should start doing so now.

How about this one?:  Current US President, a Republican, has lowest 
approval in decades.


> > > I'm seeing 2012 as a very tricky year for incumbents.
> >
> >  Why?
>
> The Iraq war will be nine years old by then and the war in Afghanistan 
> will be over ten, gas will be over $7 per gallon, the budget will really 
> be a mess. We are unlikely to have had real healthcare reform yet, and 
> the economy generally could be suprisingly weak. Running on that 
> "record" (even if it wasn't mostly your fault) will be very tough.

You are assuming that the status quo will be maintained.  McCain will 
maintain it, and maybe that is why he isn't planning to run in 2012.


> > > You could be right, but I doubt it. The way to bet would be McCain to 
> > > win in 2008 (again, barring something weird, but weird is definitely 
> > > possible) and any incumbent in 2012 to lose.
> >
> > I'm surprised that you think McCain has it all wrapped up.  That isn't 
> > what I'm hearing from most observers, but they're mostly a bunch of 
> > liberals.
>
> OK, I am basing this on the fact that about 45% of the electorate will 
> vote for any Republican under almost any circumstances.

I would say "45% of the population will not vote for a Democrat under any 
circumstance" but people will stay home instead of voting if the only 
option is very unappealing to them.


> Then the question is whether as many as 10% of the rest of the 
> electorate will find themselves unable to vote either for a woman or a 
> black guy. I am pretty sure the answer is "yes, definitely". Thus, I can 
> project that McCain will win the popular vote.

But polls have been showing him losing to either Obama or Clinton.  Do you 
think people lie to pollsters to make themselves look less sexist/racist?


> Bush was just able to win the electoral vote without winning the popular 
> vote, but he could only do that because he (and pretty much every other 
> Republican) can win more small states.
>
> There are scenarios where McCain can lose, but they all pretty much 
> depend on him looking very frail and/or the economy completely imploding 
> by November. I don't think that's the way to bet.

The economy is bad though.  Many people will blame Republican policy, 
perhaps justifiably, for the economic troubles.


> > McCain has already said that he might not run in 2012 if he wins in 
> > 2008.
>
> That may or may not be relevant.

It will only be irrelevant if he loses in 2008.

Mike

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