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On Tue, 6 May 2008, Jonathan King wrote:
For me the most important thing is which of the two can win in the
general election.
Neither of them is going to win. If Obama is the nominee, he is going to
lose Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Arkansas, and Missouri for sure, and
possibly other necessary swing states in addition.
Wow. I wonder if I should be moving to Canada, or to some other country
where the people are not crazy.
Unless McCain does something insane, Clinton-Obama would be lucky to win
17 states (CA, OR, WA, NY, IL, MA, CT, RI, VT, WI, MD, NJ, DE, MN, AR,
HI, and *maybe* MI or CO or NM).
Why not Ohio?
I also think that 8 years as VP will make Obama unstoppable in 2016,
but they'd have to win re-election in 2012.
I'm seeing 2012 as a very tricky year for incumbents.
Why?
You could be right, but I doubt it. The way to bet would be McCain to
win in 2008 (again, barring something weird, but weird is definitely
possible) and any incumbent in 2012 to lose.
I'm surprised that you think McCain has it all wrapped up. That isn't
what I'm hearing from most observers, but they're mostly a bunch of
liberals.
McCain has already said that he might not run in 2012 if he wins in 2008.
Eight years ago I would have thought better of McCain but these days he's
been doing some really foolish things that make him look bad. His false
claims about safety in Iraq were ridiculous. His "bomb bomb bomb, bomb
bomb Iran" singing was another. He wants more war, and I don't, but I do
respect that his own son is in Iraq. He wants to maintain low taxes on
the very rich and that has been a disaster so far, as far as I can tell.
He wants to drop the gas tax for summer, which is *insane* in the face of
our failing infrastructure (at least four major bridges in Minnesota are
shut down until they can be replaced). His relationship to lunatic Pastor
John Hagee is disturbing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uViQ0hVV57Q
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/opinion/04rich.html
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=186195
Mike
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