Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Iowa Electronic Markets sez...

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 7 Jan 2008, Jonathan King wrote:

> I mention these because the notion of letting people bet on propositions 
> does have a tendency to weed out wishful thinking pretty quickly, unless 
> you have a big bankroll. Anyway, here's the convenient link to the 
> latest prices on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM):
>
> http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Nomination08_quotes.html

That's very interesting.  Thanks.


> Looking at the DEM side, we see the belief that Obama will win NH and do 
> well enough in SC to set up a Super Tuesday sweep for himself.
>
> For the REP side, McCain is apparently seen as the heir apparent to the 
> Romney campaign, and Huckabee is seen as probably falling short.

McCain -- people haven't been thinking about him enough lately because he 
avoided Iowa.  Let's see what they are saying on Tuesday night.  One 
problem with McCain is that he will be 72 years old before November. 
That would make him the oldest starting president ever.  He has even 
admitted that he might not last 8 years in office.  Amazingly, he is 25 
years (minus 25 days) older than Barack.

I also notice that no one had much to say about Wyoming.  I agree that it 
was inconsequential.  Romney won by a wide margin.


> I'm not sure why Giuliani is doing so well in this auction. He did 
> horribly in Iowa and will do horribly also in South Carolina and he may 
> not be out of the single digits in NH. I know his strategy was to work 
> harder in other places (NY is his, and FL and CA are supposed to be 
> his), but there is only so far you can push that.

I think Giuliani didn't really do anything in Iowa:

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politics/ny-usjani0104,0,6085769.column

Strange strategy!  At least he has a good excuse for losing.


> Anyway, if Obama wins in New Hampshire (and he now has a double digit 
> lead in the polls I have seen today), I'm not sure how I can see Clinton 
> stopping him.

Obama is amazing.  He really does make people feel positive and hopeful. 
He gives great answers to questions.  People say that he's inexperienced, 
but he is so smart and inspiring that I think he will make great choices. 
Important characteristics of a President:  Chooses the right people for 
staff, cabinet positions, etc., listens to his good advisors and maintains 
a good public image.  I think Obama can do it.

Mike

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