Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Ron Paul supporters?

["Vern Green" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

 

It has already been very important, in that the GOP no longer controls
Congress and is favored to lose the White House, too, in 2008, and a
large part of that is the war. But I agree that the war is "priced
into opinion" by now.

 

One also have to look at the 25% approval rating of congress, when you look at that, I think you will start seeing a lot of incumbants losing next election cycle. I don't think it will return control back to the republicans, but I think the Dems will lose some seats.

 

I think the odds are now 50/50 or better that the economy is now in
recession. The markets are now pricing in a 50 bp cut by the Feds
based on the last employment report, which was horrible and likely to
be revised downward. And it's true: if the economy tilts into a
recession in 2008 (or is there now) the odds of the GOP holding the
White House are virtually zero.

 

I think that depends. I am not sure that people see the democrats as the answer to economic woes. I do believe that Obama faces an uphill battle to win the presidency if the economy does go into full recession. People are going to be looking at someone with more experience. Sure Obama will get those younger voters who have no investment in the stock market to speak of. But those baby boomers and older Gen X people who are saving for their retirement are going to be looking for someone with some financial management experience.

 

That is definitely possible, but the Rasmussen poll just out today had
Obama up by 12 points in New Hampshire. Edwards is (or at least was)
highly favored in South Carolina. If Hilary can't win anything going
into Super Tuesday, I just don't see much of a chance for her to win,
because it's not like Obama has no support in other states or no money
to wage the campaign with.

 

For both Hilary and Obama, getting the nomination is a lot different than winning the election. I think it all depends on who the republicans put up. Right now the activists are who you are hearing from, those that are supporting their republican candidate whether that be Guilianoi, Thompson, Huckabee, or Romney. Ultimately, the republicans need to bring in someone that can unite the base. Huckabee and Thompson can do it, Romney has a shot, but Guiliani will split the base and should not be the candidate. I think that is what you are seeing in Iowa. Guiliani will do well in New York and California, but I think Huckabee is going to take most of the southern states and ultimately will be the candidate for the republicans.

 

If that happens, then I think HIlary has no chance at the presidency and Obama, could win, but likely will lose as well. I don't think the American people are as upset with the republican party as much as they are with the current administration, which is on its way out.

 

-- 
Thanks
F Vernon Green 
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