Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Ron Paul supporters?

["Jonathan King" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Jan 6, 2008 12:09 PM, Vern Green <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> Unless the war turns sour again before the election, I do not think it is
> going to be as important as everyone thinks it is.

It has already been very important, in that the GOP no longer controls
Congress and is favored to lose the White House, too, in 2008, and a
large part of that is the war. But I agree that the war is "priced
into opinion" by now.

> Last night during the democratic debate they had a poll up on what items
> people think are the most important. It appears people are much more
> concerned about health care and the economy than they are the war in Iraq.
> Economy was 42% and health care was 34%. THe Iraq war was at 10%. I do not
> know how scientific it was, but those were telling numbers.

I think the odds are now 50/50 or better that the economy is now in
recession. The markets are now pricing in a 50 bp cut by the Feds
based on the last employment report, which was horrible and likely to
be revised downward. And it's true: if the economy tilts into a
recession in 2008 (or is there now) the odds of the GOP holding the
White House are virtually zero.

> The only two candidates running that can prop themselves up on being
> anti-war is Obama and Paul. Obama has a shot at getting nominated though I
> still think he is going to lose to Hilary.

That is definitely possible, but the Rasmussen poll just out today had
Obama up by 12 points in New Hampshire. Edwards is (or at least was)
highly favored in South Carolina. If Hilary can't win anything going
into Super Tuesday, I just don't see much of a chance for her to win,
because it's not like Obama has no support in other states or no money
to wage the campaign with.

> Paul? Sorry, it is honorable that
> he has rabid supporters, but he is going to lose.

Probably, but he raised $20 million last quarter, and he has no reason
not to spend it all and wreck quite a bit of havoc. Current thinking
is that McCain will become the new Establishment candidate if Romney
continues to disappoint. Mike Huckabee will have something to say
about this, of course.

jking

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