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On Tue, 2 Oct 2007, Jonathan King wrote:
I think the simple and systematic application of Stein's law would have
prevented almost every financial bubble in the last 20 years. Really,
it's the ultimate boundary condition.
That was a good message, Jon, and that part helped most to see where
Stein's Law can be used. The funny thing though is that many people know
a bubble when they see one and they know it will burst and they know that
they are gambling with large sums of money. Still, someone makes big
bucks off of the bubble and someone else loses. It's a matter of getting
out at the right time. So I think that even knowing Stein's Law, people
will also think "I can turn this around before I lose my shirt" and they
go right ahead and buy at the inflated price. Telling people that they
might lose everything doesn't seem to stop them!
Mike
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