[MLUG - DISCUSSION] [POLITICS] Ex-Aide Says He's Lost Faith in Bush

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

It's hard to know what to believe when you are reading about a guy like 
Matthew Dowd.  He's an expert on public opinion and how to manipulate it. 
He might have made himself into a story so that he can attract attention 
at this critical time when politicians need to decide who to hire to help 
them with their 2008 campaigns.  Is this a real story or just an ad for 
Matthew Dowd?  --Mike

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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/01/washington/01adviser.html

N.Y. Times
April 1, 2007

Ex-Aide Says He's Lost Faith in Bush

By JIM RUTENBERG

AUSTIN, Tex., March 29 -- In 1999, Matthew Dowd became a symbol of George 
W. Bush's early success at positioning himself as a Republican with 
Democratic appeal.

A top strategist for the Texas Democrats who was disappointed by the Bill 
Clinton years, Mr. Dowd was impressed by the pledge of Mr. Bush, then 
governor of Texas, to bring a spirit of cooperation to Washington. He 
switched parties, joined Mr. Bush's political brain trust and dedicated 
the next six years to getting him to the Oval Office and keeping him 
there. In 2004, he was appointed the president's chief campaign 
strategist.

Looking back, Mr. Dowd now says his faith in Mr. Bush was misplaced.

In a wide-ranging interview here, Mr. Dowd called for a withdrawal from 
Iraq and expressed his disappointment in Mr. Bush's leadership.

He criticized the president as failing to call the nation to a shared 
sense of sacrifice at a time of war, failing to reach across the political 
divide to build consensus and ignoring the will of the people on Iraq. He 
said he believed the president had not moved aggressively enough to hold 
anyone accountable for the abuses at Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, and that 
Mr. Bush still approached governing with a "my way or the highway" 
mentality reinforced by a shrinking circle of trusted aides.

"I really like him, which is probably why I'm so disappointed in things," 
he said. He added, "I think he's become more, in my view, secluded and 
bubbled in."

In speaking out, Mr. Dowd became the first member of Mr. Bush's inner 
circle to break so publicly with him.

He said his decision to step forward had not come easily. But, he said, 
his disappointment in Mr. Bush's presidency is so great that he feels a 
sense of duty to go public given his role in helping Mr. Bush gain and 
keep power.

Mr. Dowd, a crucial part of a team that cast Senator John Kerry as a 
flip-flopper who could not be trusted with national security during 
wartime, said he had even written but never submitted an op-ed article 
titled "Kerry Was Right," arguing that Mr. Kerry, a Massachusetts Democrat 
and 2004 presidential candidate, was correct in calling last year for a 
withdrawal from Iraq.

"I'm a big believer that in part what we're called to do -- to me, by God; 
other people call it karma -- is to restore balance when things didn't 
turn out the way they should have," Mr. Dowd said. "Just being quiet is 
not an option when I was so publicly advocating an election."

Mr. Dowd's journey from true believer to critic in some ways tracks the 
public arc of Mr. Bush's political fortunes. But it is also an intensely 
personal story of a political operative who at times, by his account, 
suppressed his doubts about his professional role but then confronted them 
as he dealt with loss and sorrow in his own life.

In the last several years, as he has gradually broken his ties with the 
Bush camp, one of Mr. Dowd's premature twin daughters died, he was 
divorced, and he watched his oldest son prepare for deployment to Iraq as 
an Army intelligence specialist fluent in Arabic. Mr. Dowd said he had 
become so disillusioned with the war that he had considered joining street 
demonstrations against it, but that his continued personal affection for 
the president had kept him from joining protests whose anti-Bush fervor is 
so central.

Mr. Dowd, 45, said he hoped in part that by coming forward he would be 
able to get a message through to a presidential inner sanctum that he 
views as increasingly isolated. But, he said, he holds out no great hope. 
He acknowledges that he has not had a conversation with the president.

Dan Bartlett, the White House counselor, said Mr. Dowd's criticism is 
reflective of the national debate over the war.

"It's an issue that divides people," Mr. Bartlett said. "Even people that 
supported the president aren't immune from having their own feelings and 
emotions."

He said he disagreed with Mr. Dowd's description of the president as 
isolated and with his position on withdrawal. He said Mr. Dowd, a friend, 
has "sometimes expressed these sentiments" in private conversation, though 
"not in such detail."

During the interview with Mr. Dowd on a slightly overcast afternoon in 
downtown Austin, he was a far quieter man than the cigar-chomping general 
that he was during Mr. Bush's 2004 campaign.

Soft-spoken and somewhat melancholy, he wore jeans, a T-shirt and sandals 
in an office devoid of Bush memorabilia save for a campaign coffee mug and 
a photograph of the first couple with his oldest son, Daniel. The 
photograph was taken one week before the 2004 election, and one day before 
Daniel was to go to boot camp.

Over Mexican food at a restaurant that was only feet from the 2000 
campaign headquarters, and later at his office just up the street, Mr. 
Dowd recounted his political and personal journey. "It's amazing," he 
said. "In five years, I've only traveled 300 feet, but it feels like I've 
gone around the world, where my head is."

Mr. Dowd said he decided to become a Republican in 1999 and joined Mr. 
Bush after watching him work closely with Bob Bullock, the Democratic 
lieutenant governor of Texas, who was a political client of Mr. Dowd and a 
mentor to Mr. Bush.

"It's almost like you fall in love," he said. "I was frustrated about 
Washington, the inability for people to get stuff done and bridge divides. 
And this guy's personality -- he cared about education and taking a 
different stand on immigration."

Mr. Dowd established himself as an expert at interpreting polls, giving 
Karl Rove, the president's closest political adviser, and the rest of the 
Bush team guidance as they set out to woo voters, slash opponents and 
exploit divisions between Democratic-leaning states and Republican-leaning 
ones.

In television interviews in 2004, Mr. Dowd said that Mr. Kerry's campaign 
was proposing "a weak defense," and that the voters "trust this president 
more than they trust Senator Kerry on Iraq."

But he was starting to have his own doubts by then, he said.

He said he thought Mr. Bush handled the immediate aftermath of the Sept. 
11 attacks well but "missed a real opportunity to call the country to a 
shared sense of sacrifice."

He was dumbfounded when Mr. Bush did not fire Defense Secretary Donald H. 
Rumsfeld after revelations that American soldiers had tortured prisoners 
at Abu Ghraib.

Several associates said Mr. Dowd chafed under Mr. Rove's leadership. Mr. 
Dowd said he had not spoken to Mr. Rove in months but would not discuss 
their relationship in detail.

Mr. Dowd said, in retrospect, he was in denial.

"When you fall in love like that," he said, "and then you notice some 
things that don't exactly go the way you thought, what do you do? Like in 
a relationship, you say 'No no, no, it'll be different.' "

He said he clung to the hope that Mr. Bush would get back to his Texas 
style of governing if he won. But he saw no change after the 2004 victory.

He describes as further cause for doubt two events in the summer of 2005: 
the administration's handling of Hurricane Katrina and the president's 
refusal, around the same time that he was entertaining the bicyclist Lance 
Armstrong at his Crawford ranch, to meet with the war protester Cindy 
Sheehan, whose son died in Iraq.

"I had finally come to the conclusion that maybe all these things along do 
add up," he said. "That it's not the same, it's not the person I thought."

He said that during his work on the 2006 re-election campaign of Gov. 
Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, which had a bipartisan appeal, he 
began to rethink his approach to elections.

"I think we should design campaigns that appeal not to 51 percent of the 
people," he said, "but bring the country together as a whole."

He said that he still believed campaigns must do what it takes to win, but 
that he was never comfortable with the most hard-charging tactics. He is 
now calling for "gentleness" in politics. He said that while he tried to 
keep his own conduct respectful during political combat, he wanted to "do 
my part in fixing fissures that I may have been part of."

His views against the war began to harden last spring when, in a personal 
exercise, he wrote a draft opinion article and found himself agreeing with 
Mr. Kerry's call for withdrawal from Iraq. He acknowledged that the 
expected deployment of his son Daniel was an important factor.

He said the president's announcement last fall that he was re-nominating 
the former United Nations ambassador John R. Bolton, whose confirmation 
Democrats had already refused, was further proof to him that Mr. Bush was 
not seeking consensus with Democrats.

He said he came to believe Mr. Bush's views were hardening, with the 
reinforcement of his inner circle. But, he said, the person "who is 
ultimately responsible is the president." And he gradually ventured out 
with criticism, going so far as declaring last month in a short essay in 
Texas Monthly magazine that Mr. Bush was losing "his gut-level bond with 
the American people," and breaking more fully in this week's interview.

"If the American public says they're done with something, our leaders have 
to understand what they want," Mr. Dowd said. "They're saying, 'Get out of 
Iraq.' "

Mr. Dowd's friends from Mr. Bush's orbit said they understood his need to 
speak out. "Everyone is going to reflect on the good and the bad, and 
everything in between, in their own way," said Nicolle Wallace, 
communications director of Mr. Bush's 2004 campaign, a post she also held 
at the White House until last summer. "And I certainly respect the way 
he's doing it -- these are his true thoughts from a deeply personal 
place." Ms. Wallace said she continued to have "enormous gratitude" for 
her years with Mr. Bush.

Mr. Bartlett, the White House counselor, said he understood, too, though 
he said he strongly disagreed with Mr. Dowd's assessment. "Do we know our 
critics will try to use this to their advantage? Yes," he said. "Is that 
perfect? No. But you can respectfully disagree with someone who has been 
supportive of you."

Mr. Dowd does not seem prepared to put his views to work in 2008. The only 
candidate who appeals to him, he said, is Senator Barack Obama, Democrat 
of Illinois, because of what Mr. Dowd called his message of unity. But, he 
said, "I wouldn't be surprised if I wasn't walking around in Africa or 
South America doing something that was like mission work."

He added, "I do feel a calling of trying to re-establish a level of 
gentleness in the world."


Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company

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