Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] [POLITICS] Biden is screwed

[Stephen Montgomery-Smith <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

Mike Miller wrote:
> On Thu, 1 Feb 2007, Stephen Montgomery-Smith wrote:
>
> > Alright, let me say it this way.  His history can play extremely 
> > positively to the religious right.  Christianity is full of people who 
> > had wild youths, and then reformed after having seen the truth.  This 
> > includes quite a few pastors in my church, recent figures like Nicky 
> > Cruz, more historic figures like William Wilberforce, John Newton, and 
> > Augustine, even Matthew and Mary Magdeline who figure in the Bible 
> > itself.
> >
> > If Obama comes out endorsing drug use saying "it was good for me, so 
> > it is good for everyone else" of course it will be a huge disaster.  
> > But if he comes out saying that it was a big mistake, but as a result 
> > of his mistakes he has tremendous compassion for those who have also 
> > made these poor decisions in life, and provides hope for them that 
> > they can get out of the pit they find themselves in - well, he has 
> > potential to be a totally amazing president.
> >
> > And if it turns out that my political acumen is wrong (not an unlikely 
> > proposition), and his self-revelations do hurt him, but Obama still 
> > holds fast to honestly facing his sordid past, he will simply rise 
> > even higher in my esteem.
>
>
>
> I see what you mean and I'm sure you are right.  That kind of thing can 
> actually help a person.  He had problems because he never knew his 
> father, except from photos.  His 1995 book focuses on that, I guess, and 
> it talks about how he ended up using drugs but then recovered and became 
> a better person.
>
> So will the 'swift boating' attacks backfire if they focus on this 
> episode of his life?

If they happen, they have to backfire.  The point of the "swift boat" 
attacks was to portray Kerry as a liar, as someone with a sordid and 
unimpressive past that was massaged into war medals.  (I'm not here 
commenting on their validity, only their effect.)

With Obama's infidelities, the guy already came out and admitted to it 
openly.  Compare what happened when Schwarzenegger simply said "I was an 
idiot" when faced with allegations of sexual harassment - it became an 
asset, not a liability.

Any attack on Obama on these issues will be seen as extremely mean 
spirited, and I predict they will completely and utterly backfire.  I 
mean, even the swift boat attacks were potentially a huge liability to 
the Bush campaign, and Bush completely disavowed himself from them. 
(And the CBS campaign against Bush was most very definitely a liability 
to the Democrats.)



I should add - I am not endorsing Obama's candidacy - all my positive 
remarks are based only on first impressions of the guy.  But so far I 
like a lot of what I see.

Stephen

--

Stephen Montgomery-Smith
EMAIL:PROTECTED
http://www.math.missouri.edu/~stephen

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