Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] good intentions aside...

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 3 Jul 2006, Vern Green wrote:

> Wouldn't this graphic:
>
> http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/upload/2006/06/fig2-22.png
>
> Point more to a naturally recurring phenomena than something people are 
> doing?


Did you read the text?  What it points to is a very strong relationship 
between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperature (at least over the 
antarctic).  Recently, human activity has caused a 30% increase in 
atmospheric C02 levels.  Thus, the graph suggests that we should expect 
temperature to rise in response to recent human activity.

Obviously, all climate researchers are very aware of long-term trends in 
global temperature, effects of variation in solar activity, etc., etc., ad 
nauseum.  This is one of the reasons why it has taken many years to 
determine that human activity is *partly* to blame for the recent increase 
in global temperature.  Many things had to be taken into account. 
Computer modeling was critical in putting it all together.  If you would 
like to know more, read these articles here:

http://taxa.epi.umn.edu/rmnews/2006/msg00151.html
http://taxa.epi.umn.edu/rmnews/2004/msg00102.html
http://taxa.epi.umn.edu/rmnews/2006/msg00118.html

> From the 2004 article (second of three URLs):

   The studies in the report that point to a human cause for recent
   warming all involved supercomputer simulations of climate, which have
   increased in power over the past several years.

   The latest analysis, done at the National Center for Atmospheric
   Research in Boulder, Colo., found that natural shifts in the output of
   the sun and other factors were responsible for the warming from 1900 to
   1950 but could not explain the sharp and continuing rise since 1970.

Mike

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