Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] statistical inference

["Jonathan King" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On 6/6/06, Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:

> >>> > So how simple a problem do you think we should go to?  I think a
> >>> > (slightly) simpler problem is to use catch/re-catch probabilities to
> >>> > estimate population sizes of a given species in a closed system like
> >>> > fish in a lake.
> >>>
> >>> My guess is that this problem's complexity is about the same.
> >>
> >> You would think so, but isn't the catch-recatch method to estimate
> >> population size a solved problem?
> >
> > Real life statisticians might be intimidated by people who question
> > their assumptions.  But similarly I am intimidated by statisticians who
> > have real world experience, and who know the literature, as well as the
> > proper lingo.
> >
> > So I thought I vaguely knew what the capture-recapture method is (don't
> > you tag the birds you catch and see how long it is until you catch it
> > again.)? But I didn't know any more than that (like it was a solved
> > problem).
>
> The terminology for Google searching is really "capture recapture."
> Here's a simple page:
>
> http://www.figurethis.org/challenges/c52/challenge.htm

Thanks for setting me straight.

> The assumptions are unstated there but pretty obvious.  I'm sure there are
> much more sophisticated approaches.

Many on that very search page.  The person who did the artwork for the
page you cited should be shot. :-)  More seriously, if you took this
setting and made it into one where you caught the fist one at a time
and threw them back, it looks like you could develop a model that
would allow you to estimate something about the total number of fish
and the probability of catching each fish (which could be different
for each fish) and maybe have something better to say about the total
population of fish whose catpure probability exceeds some lower bound,
or is less than some upper bound, or both.

jking

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