Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] [POLITICS] Was the 2004 Election Stolen?

["Vern Green" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

> So let's look at the case of the Gray Davis Recall/Schwarzenegger
> election.  The exit polls had the recall vote at 55% for and 45%
> against.  The actual result was 54% for and 46% against.  Again, if
> the election had been really close, the exit poll wouldn't have been
> conclusive, but we would have known this.  The Kerry/Bush race was
> obviously closer, but when the exit polls have one guy up by 2.5% and
> he loses by 2% and the MOE is 1%...something weird happened.  What
> that weird thing was, we still don't really know for sure.

I guess the point I was trying to make on a national level could be
made better with this example.

Since the majority of the people in California live in three main
cities in California, and since most of the media outlets polling
would be located in those cities. One would expect those numbers to be
pretty accurate, especially since the rural voter in California cannot
even begin to sway the election.

However, on the national level, there are plenty of voters in smaller
markets and rural areas that can sway an election. So if you are
polling in urban areas, then it is expected that Kerry would be ahead,
but as the rural vote starts coming in, those exit polls will become
less reliable unless of course you are polling an accurate percentage
of rural voters as well and I am not convinced this is happening on
the national level.

If you look at the map, the urban areas really went for Kerry, but in
a state like Missouri, and even Ohio, there are plenty of rural voters
to overpower the larger cities. So if I were only polling in say
St.Louis and extrapolated the winner from results from St. Louis only,
then the accuracy of the poll is suspect.

Which brings us to the electoral college and is the precise reason the
electorial college was put into place in the beginning, I think it is
a good idea that makes sense even today.

--
Thanks
F Vernon Green

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