Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Follow-Up on Polls (fwd)

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 1 Nov 2004 16:56:37 -0600 (CST), Mike Miller
<EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
>
> More from Joe on poll results (below).  It's all about the bias!

In any case, I think it's worth pointing out that Bush shares in the
presidential winner-take-all market run by the Iowa market have gotten
crushed today.  The latest market data show a nearly perfect marekt
split at 50% Kerry, 50% Bush as I write:

http://128.255.244.60/quotes/78.html

 At midnight last night, that was 45% Kerry, 55% Bush.  Oddly, the
spread on the winner-take-all race was always bizarrely high given the
underlying polling data, and the trading data themselves looked quite
suspicious.  Right now, it looks like whoever was messing around with
propping up the Bush shares has either quit doing it or cashed out or
something.  The vote share market also just converted for Kerry,
basically to match his latest adjusted poll results.  Tomorrow should
be a very interesting day for the Iowa markets, since the WTA market
has to match the winner, while the vote shares market has to match the
vote share and the election will, I think, end up close.  For the fun
of it, I also looked at the www.tradesports.com site, To me, that's
more of a fanboy site, but even there the Bush contracts have been
sinking today.  Given that I predict a 0.6% Kerry victory, I should
expect to see the markets at just about dead even, and, sure enough,
they're getting there.

jking
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