[MLUG - DISCUSSION] Follow-Up on Polls (fwd)

[Mike Miller <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

More from Joe on poll results (below).  It's all about the bias!
--Mike


---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Mon, 01 Nov 2004 16:31:04 -0500
From: Dr. Joseph J. Plaud <EMAIL:PROTECTED>
To: JJP Bush Must Go Account <EMAIL:PROTECTED>
Subject: Follow-Up on Polls

Here is the best information of all regarding polling. You simply have to 
look inside the polls to see what is going on. The DISHONESTY of these 
polling organizations is incredible.
[snip]

Anyway, Gallup produced their last poll Sunday evening, and among LVs 
shows last week's 5% lead for Bush (51%-46%) now shrinking to a 49%-47% 
lead for Bush over Kerry [49-49 with leaners]. Among registered voters, 
however, Kerry has a 48%-46% lead.

But toss out those results by Gallup. Why? Because take a look at the 
composition of the LV and RV samples by party ID that Gallup used last 
night in their poll. I just got the internals from Gallup, and the LV 
sample they used had a 5% GOP advantage over the Democrats, and Kerry 
still almost tied Bush.

1573 Likely Voters
1559 In Sample
Bush Leads Kerry 49%-47%

GOP: 624 (40%)
Ind: 389 (25%)
Dem: 546 (35%)

When compared to the 2000 exit poll results, Gallup under sampled 
Democrats by 4% and over sampled Republicans by 5%, a neato 9% swing. If 
the sample was reweighted to more closely follow the 2000 exit poll party 
ID breakdown of 39% Dem/35% GOP/26% Ind, can you imagine what kind of lead 
Kerry would have?

I suppose we'll find out tomorrow... Now go vote.

JJP
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