Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] my final prediction

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 1 Nov 2004 10:20:09 -0800, Vern Green <EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> I think this is a good analysis, very good Jonathan.
> 
> I also think we had all better brace ourselves for the eventuality
> that neither candidate will win this election in the electoral
> college. It is possible based on how close this election is that
> neither candidate would receive the 270 electoral votes it requires to
> win this thing.
> 
> Lets take into consideration for a moment this map:
> 
> http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html
> 
> It shows Bush winning the college by 8 electoral college votes, what
> if Bush loses Louisiana with those 9 votes. 

OK; that map just shows the updated EC vote for the Gore-Bush result
of 2000.  Bush is not going to lose Louisian, but he could well lose
New Hampshire plus Nevada, for the same 269-269 tie.  In that case,
there is still the wrinkle of the potentially unfaithful elector in
West Virginia, but I don't think he would vote for Kerry; a more
likely event would be him voting for somebody like John McCain, who
would then become "eligible" for the contest in the House by virtue of
his being one of the top 3 EC vote getters.
Ah, the "beauty" of the Electoral College (not).

Now, there's also a truly bizarre story in Ohio, in that one of the
Kerry electors turns out to be technically ineligible to be an
elector.  I don't know what procedure should be followed here, but
it's impressive that an election would happen where either or both of
these unusual events could be crucial.

> That pushes Kerry to 269
> and gives Bush 269. That would result in neither candidate winning,
> and who decides in this case? The Senate decides.

Somebody else has already batted you down on this one.  The Senate
does get to decide something, but it turns out to be who gets to be
vice-president.
 
> Now the Senate is almost evenly divided between democrats and
> republicans. The republicans have Zell Miller and if the vote is still
> tied, Cheney will break it.

I'd have to check (no time at the moment) but I think the balance in
the senate isn't important per se but the balance of state delegations
is; that's the way it works in the house, anyway.
 
> I know this is a far fetched possibility, but it is made even more
> possible if  Colorado  votes to split their college votes.

That one is apparently going down in flames, primarily because voters
don't want to be guinea pigs in the test case of whether it's legal to
pass the constitutional amendment in that way.
 
> What do you all think? I know it is a long shot, but it is a
> mathematical possbility, even if it is not a huge possibility.

The odds of a tie are not as bad as you might like.  I know the
Gore2000+NH+NV scenario is the one that has people the most worried,
but there are others.  (E.g., Gore2000+Florida+NH-(Wisconsin+Iowa+NM),
or substitute Minnesota for Wisconsin if you lik in the latter one...)

jking
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