Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] my final prediction

[Vern Green <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

I think this is a good analysis, very good Jonathan.

I also think we had all better brace ourselves for the eventuality
that neither candidate will win this election in the electoral
college. It is possible based on how close this election is that
neither candidate would receive the 270 electoral votes it requires to
win this thing.

Lets take into consideration for a moment this map:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

It shows Bush winning the college by 8 electoral college votes, what
if Bush loses Louisiana with those 9 votes. That pushes Kerry to 269
and gives Bush 269. That would result in neither candidate winning,
and who decides in this case? The Senate decides.

Now the Senate is almost evenly divided between democrats and
republicans. The republicans have Zell Miller and if the vote is still
tied, Cheney will break it.

I know this is a far fetched possibility, but it is made even more
possible if  Colorado  votes to split their college votes.

What do you all think? I know it is a long shot, but it is a
mathematical possbility, even if it is not a huge possibility.
. 

On Mon, 1 Nov 2004 12:01:59 -0600, Jonathan King
<EMAIL:PROTECTED> wrote:
> OK, so I have to post this and get on with my life. :-)  Here's my
> best guess as to the popular vote in tomorrow's election, based solely
> on current and previous polls from 2000 and 2004.
> 
> 049.3 Kerry
> 048.7 Bush
> 000.9 Nader
> 001.0 All others combined
> --------
> 100.0 Total
> 
> Method: last time out, the top 15 polls gave an average reading of
> Gore 44.2%, Bush 46.5% Nader 4.5%;
> Bush ended up with 47.9%, Gore with 48.4% and Nader with 2.7% with 1%
> straying elsewhere, as always.  Averaging the top 10 polls this time
> we have: Kerry 46.9%, Bush 47.6%, Nader 0.9%.  Last time, Bush gained
> 1.4% on his last average number, while Gore gained 4.2%, but Nader
> lost 1.8%.  If we give Bush his 1.4%, allow 1% for "Other" (always
> close to this) and give the rest to Kerry, we get:
> 
> 049.1 Kerry
> 049.0 Bush
> 000.9 Nader
> 001.0 Other
> -------
> 100.0% Total
> 
> The difficulty with this approach is that the Nader vote collapsed
> last time, which bumped Gore up smartly; this time, we're more in a
> position of allocating undecideds.  If we take the 3.6% truly
> undecided implied by "other" getting 1% and the average final polls,
> and allocate it 2:1 for Kerry (almost exactly the historical pattern)
> we get:
> 
> 049.3 Kerry
> 048.8 Bush
> 000.9 Nader
> 001.0 Other
> ---------------
> 100.0% Total
> 
> A third approach is to look at the 3 polls that got Gore's total right
> within 2% last time and that are polling this time (Harris apparently
> isn't?)  Their average last time was:
> 
> 047.0 Gore
> 047.6 Bush
> 004.3 Nader
> 001.1 Other
> -------
> 100.0% Total
> 
> The big error was in the Nader + other category; only 3.8% total went
> for these guys, and Bush gained 0.3% while Gore gained 1.4% (the
> rest).  This time, the same 3 polls (Gallup, Zogby and Princeton/Pew)
> have:
> 
> 047.0 Kerry
> 047.4 Bush
> 001.0 Nader
> 001.0 other*
> 003.6 undecided
> -------
> 100.0%
> 
> I asterisk "other" since they don't appear in the polls, but they
> monotonously get about 1% of the vote, so nobody doubts they are
> there.  Dividing "undecided" 2:1 against the incumbent is pretty much
> historical, so we get as a final tally:
> 
> 049.4 Kerry
> 048.6 Bush
> 001.0 Nader
> 001.0 other*
> -------
> 100.0%
> 
> Taking the average of my two models, I get (with some not very
> creative rounding) the 49.3/48.7/0.9/1.0 split that I predict at the
> top of this.  In other words, I have Bush losing the popular vote by
> 500K to 1 million.  But I *don't* have Kerry breaking 50%. That could
> happen, but would require an undecided break pretty massively against
> Bush which I just don't see.
> 
> So have it, guys.
> 
> jking
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-- 
Thanks
F Vernon Green
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