RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Mars Rover Landing

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 5 Jan 2004, Ross, Matthew wrote:

> > I'm not sure what you mean by the last sentence.  The rational 
> > choice given our horrifically bad record at bringing people in and 
> > out of orbit is not to cower in fear, but rather to double or 
> > quadruple the size of the un-manned programs.  Given sufficient 
> > funding, we could learn to do amazing things in space pretty 
> > quickly.  Once we choose a meat in space program, we deliberately 
> > forego knowledge we could have had more quickly otherwise.
> 
> Ignoring USSR's actions early in the space-race, the death toll
> has been relatively low. We've had two major shuttle accidents,
> and a handfull of early failures. IIRC, 32 have died in American
> missions. Hundreds have been to space and back safely. 

Check that last figure.  The death rate for astronauts is still on
the order of 1% PER TRIP.  Hundreds of clones of Mogmios could
cartwheel across the I-70 and suffer a lower death rate than that.  
The problem I see is not with a long-term goal of manned space 
travel, but with the idea that manned space travel plays a key 
short-term role in the pursuit of that long-term goal.  In a decade 
or three, after we have made what will probably be a 3-5 sigma 
improvement in systems reliability, then I say: go for it.  Trying 
to push a shuttle program that was designed in the 70s into the 21st 
century is just nuts.

Also:

> With world population continuing to grow, it's not a field we
> should allow ourselves to fall behind in over the deaths of people
> who would have wanted the space program to continue and expand.

If world (over)population is the problem, I submit there are many
better ways to address it.  I have to admit I am an optimist in a
very deep sense.  Historically, the best way to reduce birthrates is
to create societies above the subsistence level.  A rising tide
really does float all boats, especially if your boat is stuck in a
mud flat.  Heck, even if the West worked to insure the availability
of potable drinking water to all, we'd be way ahead.

jking


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