RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] speaking of apocalyptic horsemen...

["Matthew Ross" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

> If employment is growing in 2004 and they find a way to fix the long term
> problems with the budget, everybody in the state could win 
> re-election.

Not everybody of course, there's always at least one state rep or senator that does something so utterly stupid that he can't win re-election. Holden has lost his teacher and parent votes, he's lost his state worker votes, and he's lost his small business votes. I think he angered too many people to have a chance.

> That said, presidents and governors often take the fall when 
> the economy
> goes sour (much more often than reps or senators at any level).  So in
> November 2002, a lot of governors went down in states where 
> the economy
> was bad for no reason more than the fact that it was bad 
> everywhere.  The
> incumbents who won either faced weak opposition or came from 
> states where
> it was easy to see that the economic downturn wasn't their fault.  So
> Pataki in New York got a pass because 9/11 was the obvious 
> thing to blame
> for their problems, while Davis won in California because his 
> opponent was
> weak and because it was silly to think that he had done anything in
> particular to cause the tech melt-down.

Its silly to think Holden is 100% responsible either. As much as I liked Carnahan, he was a big spender. Holdnen didn't have much of a chance, but what little he could do to save face was ruined by him "proving" that he couldn't handle budgeting, and then the whole stink about him paying off his party debts with money allegedly given by union lobbyists.

Its not quite clear who's going to run on the Republican Ticket, but of the rumored options, I'd like to see Blunt run. In a normal election, Holden might put a spin on the age issue, but considering what his record is, I don't think anyone would much care.

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