RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] speaking of apocalyptic horsemen...

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Mon, 7 Apr 2003, Matthew Ross wrote:

> Speaking of which, is Holden still going to run in '04?

I'm not sure.  If he does run, given that he's a Democrat, somebody could
be silly enough to challenge him in the Primary which would probably lead
to our next governor being a Republican.  (Republicans do a much better
job of limiting the damage their candidates take in the primary.)  

But, bizarre as it may sound, I don't think it's at all clear he's as dead
as you might think.  As we saw at the national level in the 90s, people
are surprisingly happy with divided government, especially when they worry
that one party running the whole show could lead to too much happening. If
employment is growing in 2004 and they find a way to fix the long term
problems with the budget, everybody in the state could win re-election.

That said, presidents and governors often take the fall when the economy
goes sour (much more often than reps or senators at any level).  So in
November 2002, a lot of governors went down in states where the economy
was bad for no reason more than the fact that it was bad everywhere.  The
incumbents who won either faced weak opposition or came from states where
it was easy to see that the economic downturn wasn't their fault.  So
Pataki in New York got a pass because 9/11 was the obvious thing to blame
for their problems, while Davis won in California because his opponent was
weak and because it was silly to think that he had done anything in
particular to cause the tech melt-down.

jking




 

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