Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] SARS update today was really scary.

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Wed, 2 Apr 2003, Mike Miller wrote:

> On Wed, 2 Apr 2003, Jonathan King wrote:
> >  

[snip]

> >               Cumulative
> >            #cases  #deaths
> > March 29      470       10
> > March 31      530       13
> > April 01      685       16
> >
> > So the death rate is just over 2%
> 
> Unfortunately, it's a little worse than that because of the 685, some
> are new cases that *will* die eventually.  So you don't really know your
> numerator yet.

Ah.  So I guess it could go as high as 4% or so (looking back).  Good
catch.
 
> The other bad news is that it seems to be airborn so that people don't
> even need to meet face-to-face to pass the virus -- it seems to spread
> through hotels, airplanes and apartment buildings, probably through the
> ventilation system.  If that's true, it's going to be really bad.

A tiny bit of good news, though: the April 2 data was just posted, and
there were "only" 23 new cases listed.  There will be some up and down
bumps.  Now that I think of it, the news did mention that many of the new
recent cases came from pretty much everybody in a large apartment building
getting it.  The news 2-7 days from now could be very telling.

jking


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