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On Tue, 4 Mar 2003, Mike Miller wrote:
>
> On Tue, 4 Mar 2003, Jonathan King wrote:
>
> > >The computing services arm of the University of Missouri-Columbia will
> > >absorb a $2.12 million state appropriation withholding.
>
> Are you only getting hit for $2.12 million? We're talking about $185
> million up here, but spread over about 5 years.
Not sure who "we" is here. The situation here in Missouri is this:
1) Current year (2003 budget) was still out of whack by $300 million.
2) The deal to fix that included selling revenue bonds, I think
securitizing some of the tobacco money, and making some K-12 and
higher ed cuts. The U. of Missouri system had something like $10
million to deal with, which they decided to split up in some arcane way
and not project down to academic departments. At UMC, we ended up
having to cut $2.12 million, and they found all of that in some
(basically frozen) capital spending account at IATS.
3) Theoretically, the 2003 budget is now in balance. But given the fact
that the feds are now way behind on their revenue curve in January
and February, I fully expect there to be another round of panic in
about 6 weeks, and a likely re-enactment of last year's "all the money
has just disappeared" scenario at the university.
4) Next year's budget (2004) is going to be an unmitigated horror. The
projection is for a $1000 million ($1 billion) shortfall at present.
There is no real reason to think this is pessimistic, either, since
it reflects the reality of some long-term demographic changes that have
now built up into something really nasty. One recommendation is to
do a 15% across the board cut of everything in the discretionary
budget. In reality, that kind of can't happen due to the fact that
it would force prisons to close. So my best guess is that K-12 and
higher ed could get savagely cut, like by 25%, or else the governor
and the legislature are going to have cut less, but then engage in
the nightmare scenario of trying to push a huge tax increase through
a popular vote, and then doing whatever it takes after that fails
as you can almost predict it certainly will.
I'm not sure how that compares with what Minnesota higher ed will have
to put up with, but it's going to be really, really bad.
jking
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