Re: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] space shuttle explodes?

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Sat, 1 Feb 2003, Mike Miller wrote:

> I think maybe 114 total.  2/114 = 1.75%
> 
> That's more risk than I'd like to take.  So if I'm ever invited to fly on
> a space shuttle, I'll decline!

That's a pretty easy risk not to take.  But the real problem here is that
we have no reason to believe that the risk isn't at least this high, very
little reason to believe the shuttle will ever be intrinsically safer
after this (this is a mature technology; it's just not very safe), and
very little reason to resume our manned space program in the near term.  
It's extremely expensive, still embarassingly risky, and does not yield an
appreciable amount of scientific discovery over what could be achieved by
an unmanned program.  I think the saddest part of this loss is that,
rather than being seen as another sign that we should reconsider the
entire program, it will be read as an opportunity to show how "resilient" 
the program is.  I wish I could see a way out of this, but I don't.

jking


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