RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Unfolding Universe (discovery channel)

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Tue, 4 Jun 2002, "(8?»" wrote:

> Iraq is no longer designated "America Friendly", once they decided to
> nationalize their oil supply. The Saudi royals are just as dependent
> on our protection, as we are for their oil. Although they are trying
> to break free from this situation, in order to prevent another
> "Iranian Revolution". (An entire population will not stay happily
> repressed to support US oil profits.)

No offense, but if you really think this is a fair assessment of anything
as complicated as either contemporary Iranian history or the politics of
the Arabian peninsula, then I guess the world must be a much simpler place
than the one I've been hearing about.

> This same military purpose, also holds true for Argentina, Venezuela, and
> Columbia. US "National Interest" dictates that we will remain involved in
> these regions to prevent US oil companies from losing control. Especially
> since the Saudi link started deteriorating last fall.

This is just nonsense.  Of the 3 countries you have just mentioned, only
Venezuela has petroleum reserves that are (at present) even a little bit
interesting in terms of "controlling" world oil markets.  There is no
doubt that oil and energy companies exert undue influence at home and
abroad, but to claim that US oil interests have had anything like control
over the situation is just silly.  I mean, unless you'd like to argue that
they went out of their way to lose their shirts in the 80s when OPEC set
production targets at a level where prices collapsed (to name one
stupendous debacle).

> Other options include rubbing up to Russia, and getting to the gas
> under the Caspian Sea. Both of which are underway (Bush has seen the
> soul of Putin, and we are building military bases in the old soviet
> republics right along the pipeline route).

Ah, now that's getting a bit more interesting.  Russia does indeed control
a quite stupendous amount of natural gas (more than 1/3 of the currently
known reserves), and that *could* be a source of tidy profit to the
partner that helps them exploit it.  But I'm really dubious that Bush has
any inkling of what Putin is or is not capable of, and I'm not sure why
anybody would seriously believe that a US oil company could just walk into
a Russian venture with any firm prediction of profit of any kind.  Russia
has so far been the "black hole" of more foreign capital than most
investors would care to admit committing.  It is *far* easier to get US
laws changed to your liking than it is to get serious money out of a
kleptocracy.

jking


--
To unsubscribe, go to http://mlug.missouri.edu/members/edit.php

Archives are available at http://mlug.missouri.edu/list-archives/