RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] Unfolding Universe (discovery channel)

[Jonathan King <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

On Tue, 4 Jun 2002, Ross, Matt wrote:
>
> [Mike Miller wrote, I believe]
> >
> > It might have done that in the past, but things are different now.  In
> > many leading industrialized countries, population is at 0% growth or
> > declining (maintained only by immigration).  In the third world, as
> > always, population is growing.
>
> I'm going off mainly the fact that estimates say we were at 3 billion
> in 1920, and are at 6 billion now.  On the other hand, keep in mind
> that while our birth rate declines, our death rate also declines.

I'm a bit sleepy to look up the exact place, but the UN has a fairly
extensive number of web resources on population etimation and projection.
The interesting thing there is that all reasonable estimates for the 21st
century world population growth have been coming down *a lot* in recent
years.  As Mike Miller points out, much of the developed world is at or
below replacement rate, while growth rates in the developing world are
still positive, but not by nearly as much.  There are also some wild
cards; predicting population growth in AIDS-ravaged sub-Saharan Africa is
still very tricky, for example.

Some of the UN models which cannot be rejected out of hand suggest a
steady state level between 9 and 15 billion.

> Also, the most populous places on earth (china, for example) have
> population controls in place, and they simply don't work.

China is a particularly interesting case since the official population
controls have been very erratic, but rates there (almost as always)
correlate negatively with relative wealth.  So as the Chinese economy
grows, we should expect a decrease in the birth rate, and from the data
I've heard about, that's just what is happening.  (This isn't to say that
life in China is going to be idyllic or anything; they face some serious
problems on many fronts.)

> As their overflow fills the rest of the world, general wealth will
> decrease, and we'll be more..fruitfull.

You have to be careful with statements like this, or at least be aware
that they have in the past not been widely true.  I have not seen any
reasonable measure of wealth that doesn't show the current world to be
anything but the wealthiest ever.  (Of course, this does not preclude
famine, poverty and suffering everywhere.)

jking


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