RE: [MLUG - DISCUSSION] computer and car prices (was Re: [MLUG])

["Ross, Matt" <EMAIL:PROTECTED>]

> > Twice as long?  Every new car I've seen has lasted at best 
> half as long.
> 
> I'm not sure what you mean here.  Could you clarify this statement?
> 
> To put it another way, do you really think that cars in the mid-60s
> really lasted twice as long (measured in miles traveled before the
> thing is turfed) as the car that is expected to get 100K miles or
> more on it these days?  The data here are sometimes a bit hard to
> find to play with, but the effect is huge. 

Look at miles before repair experienced in the mid 60's compared to modern
cars.  I believe you'll find that our parents weren't crazy when they talked
about how much better cars were in their day.

> > > OK, the big improvements have come due to innovations like seat 
> > > belts; I'll check the numbers again some time.
> > 
> > No, the big improvement was a 55mph speed limit that everyone is
> > now used to.  That, and a lot of cracking down on drunk drivers.
> 
> Um, the 55 mph speed limit is now history, but fatalities have
> continued to improve. (The weird but true fact was that when it
> finally went away, traffic fatalities did not increase as was widely
> predicted, even by people like me.)  That said, I will certainly

2 reasons, 1, everybody was used to 55, so they weren't confident about
their driving skills at 90mph. 2, as I said, the cops are much more strict
now than then.  In the 60's, it wasn't uncommon to drive by a cop with a
beer in your hand and him just wave and smile, now you're likely to pay more
in traffic fines than on your last computer.

> retract my statement as to what the cause was until I see all the
> data again.  Seat belts played a role (wearing one basically halves
> your probability of dying in an accident), but another big factor
> was the increase in the quality of roads that people used, and th
> drunk driving campaigns you mention have helped, too.

They had seat belts back then, the difference now is A) they enforce their
use, and B) airbags.
 
> > What would you classify as cheap cars then?  I'd feel much safer
> > in a Model T than a 2002 Geo.
> 
> I don't really care how safe you *feel*, but how safe you are.  
> There are a couple of way you could look at this.  Unfortunately, 
> one of the ways is almost certainly not what you're looking for 
> (compare the Model T to the cars that are as expensive in real terms 
> today; the Geo would be much cheaper).  The other way is to compare

Actually, the Geo is about the same. The model T was targeted at the same
income bracket.
The Model T at $280 when the working class was making an average of $300 a
year, now the Geo at $15k when the working class is making about $18k.

> cars of the same relative costs within their time period, but then 
> I'm not sure what the comparison vehicle for the Model T would be.

There isn't a comparison vehicle for the Model T, it was the first car truly
mass produced.  It was the low end car, because the others were made the
'old fashion' way.

> And then there's another huge problem, which is that the historical
> data is a Model T driving on roads of the Model T era, while the
> 2002 Geo is traveling on our (much better) roads, but in a violently
> more congested environment surrounded by much bigger cars.

I think you just pointed out part of the problem, the Model T was a big
metal car, the geo is just barely above driving Tupperware.

> That said, I'm not really sure where the relevant data are these
> days.  But driving used to be such a blood sport (when measured in
> deaths per 10 million passenger miles) that I would be absolutely
> overwhelmed if the historical data showed that the cheap car of 1950
> were really safer on the road.

Actually, this would have been the 1920's.
I've yet to find the crash test results for a Model T (if one has ever been
tested) but here's your Geo's:
http://www.crashtest.com/geo/index.htm  Only one was even acceptable in the
overall rating.
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